Feature: The Rise and Fall of Plant-based Foods
As many vegan food brands’ fortunes decline, could independents help the category get back to unprocessed profit? Matt Chittock reviews the recent rollercoaster of plant-based foods.
Right now, vegan food is doing a pretty good impression of Icarus. Buoyed by the drive towards health sparked by COVID-19, the category soared with a wealth of innovative new products coming through around 2019 — often focusing on fake meat. But ultimately it flew too close to the sun. There were just too many veggie burger variations clogging the shelves and the ensuing product overload sent the category plummeting just as food inflation ratcheted up RRPs beyond shoppers’ reach.
The fallout has been severe. In 2023 vegan food was one of the fastest-selling grocery categories in terms of sales in the UK — but it has dropped a huge 13.6% year-on-year. Casualties litter the aisles, with Meatless Farm almost going bankrupt and plant-based meal company All Plants entering administration, with investors facing almost £70 million in losses.
So, among the wreckage what can be salvaged from the sector? And as the multiples slash their ranges is it again time for independents to shine?
A perfect storm in plant-based
Looking back, vegan food was hit by a perfect storm of rising inflation and customers cutting back on spending. The Vegan Society acknowledges these problems while remaining positive about the future of the ‘dynamic’ category. “As [vegan brands] contend with the cost of living crisis and a period of market stabilization following an influx of new products, some product categories have faced challenges recently,” says Karen Spinner, its trademark sales and marketing manager.
“As [vegan brands] contend with the cost of living crisiS … some categories have faced challenges”
The rush of new products that arrived five years ago was inspired by a genuine insight — that more shoppers are looking to reduce their meat intake. There was proper buzz too. In 2019 the fanfare surrounding US meat-free pioneers Beyond Meat started a gold rush in the UK with everyday brands like Flora and Richmond releasing vegan versions of their products alongside challengers like La Vie and THIS. Innovation was high, because with interest rates at record lows investors could afford to splash the cash on new recipes and formats. Sadly, as the category became a staple in the multiples, market share moved away from the indies — most of whom had been championing the category for many decades.
“It’s similar to gluten-free,” says Liz Chissell, nutritionist and manager at The Bay Tree in Ferndown, Dorset. “Supermarkets now have whole sections focusing on it where before shoppers would come to us. It’s made [the category] a lot quieter in our store. [With vegan ready meals] places like Iceland are now full of them, and people can buy them cheaper. Our prices were too high in those kinds of areas.”
Clued up on UPFs
Yet, one of the factors that’s helped to kibosh vegan foods in the multiples could lead to a renaissance in the indies: health. In the last year consumers have become much more clued-up on ultra-processed foods. And they’ve realized that the meat analogues that were hailed as game-changers are pretty far from natural.
These kinds of concerns have been echoed in recent research suggesting that people who consume 10% more ultra-processed foods derived from plants have a 12% higher risk of cardiovascular disease related to diet. Chissell says that her store caters to vegans by offering a range of simple, natural ingredients and products that shoppers can use to cook from scratch, so they don’t get ‘any of the crappy additives’ found in many heavily processed plant-based items.
“We have a fridge with vegan products like butters, which are only lightly processed. We also offer the milk alternatives — even though they have them in supermarkets now too. Cooking from scratch is important so people can get the nutrients they need.”
Vegan, but make it natural
It’s in this healthier, more down to earth way that the vegan food category could still fly. Plus, Spinner is hopeful that lower prices and innovation could be a launchpad to stronger sales.
“Consumer interest in vegan products remains robust, driven by health, sustainability and ethical considerations,” she says. “Price parity with animal products is proving critical to growth, and categories like vegan cream and cheese are emerging as rising stars in the sector.”
She also cites data from the Good Food Institute highlighting a 5.5% rise in plant-based food sales across six major European markets, reaching over €5 billion. Germany leads the way, accounting for 40% of sales. There are also signs of ‘stabilization and expected growth in 2025’ for the UK.
So maybe the big vegan food crash was a necessary part of its evolution — removing the me-too brands and testing mainstream shoppers’ appetites for meat-free.
Whatever’s next, the truth of the matter is that plenty of people still want to be vegan in 2025 — or at least reduce meat consumption for the good of their health. And when it comes to sourcing healthy, unprocessed foods to help them do that they’ll find them where they’ve always been: in the aisles of their local health food store.
By Matt Chittock, features writer